Dulwich Hill Bicycle Club

OK, I know that this is going to sound crazy, but I assure you that it is legitimate. I have recently acquired some Westfield gift vouchers through work. I can’t be bothered trying to either use them, or get rid of them another way. So, I am going to give them away.

I have two $500 gift card vouchers, and there is a simple competition that I am going to run for the next until Friday next week (26/3). The cards are completely unused, and they will expire in February 2011. So there is a while for them to be used. Not every store in a Westfields will accept them, but some stores outside of Westfields will accept them.

So, what is the competition. A simple guessing game. I have a SecurID, when I close the competition, I will record two consecutive numbers off it. Those are going to be the winning numbers. To win one of the cards, you have to be the closest guess to one of the two numbers. The SecurID produces a 6 digit number, so to enter, all you need to do is PM me your guess.

Rules
1) I am the final judge of the prize, and no correspondence will be entered into.
2) Limit of one guess per person.
3) Only fully paid members of DHBC can enter.
4) To Enter, PM me a six digit number, if your number is less than six digits, It will be padded out with leading zeros. If your number is longer than six digits, it will be truncated, only the first six digits will be considered.
5) Limit of one prize per person. After the first card has been awarded, that persons guess will be removed before the second card is awarded.
6) In the event that two people are equidistant from the winning number, the person with the earlier guess will win.
7) All guesses must be in by 8pm on Friday 26th of March 2010. I will collect the numbers on Saturday 27th March and announce the winners.

Let the guessing begin...

James

Man that is near impossible...but hey - $500 at Westfield, I cant go past that. So I just need to submit a 6 digit number, that's the easy part.

That's it, I need to generate some aliases on this forum.

Lets get this straight - a securID changes its numbers approx. every 1 minute - and we have to guess 2 consecutive numbers of those 6 - so if the displayed number was 123456 and I guessed 5, and you selected the 4 & 5 pair, then I'd be correct?

No

You guess a 6 digit number, then if your guess is the closest to one of the two 6 digit numbers that I get off my SecurID, then you win one of the cards.

So, as an example, suppose that 3 people make guess of

250000
500000
750000

and the two numbers that come up are

248754
409088

Then the guess of 250000 would have one one, and the guess of 500000 would win the other.

Ideally, you want to pick a number that gives you the greatest range, but to be able to do that, you need to know what everyone else has guessed.

James

Not a chance Joanne, your up against the man who won the school raffle 3 years in a row

BTW James, we gave secure id the flick years ago

I thought I would have another go at explaining how this is going to work.

The range of numbers possible is 0 to 999999, I know that I said a six digit number, so 0 should really be 000000.

When you pick a number, you are in fact getting a range of numbers, but that range is dependant on what numbers have been picked around you. If you are really unlucky, and say you pick 315561, and someone else picks 315562, and a third person picks 315560, then your range is just the number that you picked.

But, if you instead picked 100000, and that was the lowest guess, and the next highest is 150000, then your range is either 000000 - 125000 or 000000 - 124999 depending on who made their guess first. (refer to rule 6 above)

So, the tip to making a guess that gives you the best chance of winning, is to pick a number that gives you the greatest range of numbers, but being able to do that is knowing what everyone else has picked. So if Stuart or any of the other people with Database Access to the Server make a really astute guess towards the end, I know that someone has been reading my private messages....

If at the end of this you are still confused, just PM me a number between 000000 and 999999

James

So if Stuart or any of the other people with Database Access to the Server make a really astute guess towards the end, I know that someone has been reading my private messages....

Stuart, you've just been DQ'ed.

PS. I don't have Database Access.

Stuart, you've just been DQ'ed. PS. I don't have Database Access.

Hey - I resent the imputation that I'd cheat in such a way! Anyway, If I won I'd have to give it Jo anyway ....

Hey - I resent the imputation that I'd cheat in such a way! Anyway, If I won I'd have to give it Jo anyway ....

Nothing personal, but just following common lottery rule where all members with direct and indirect connection to the operation are ineligible.

Ah ha, so you are an agent of Jo!

I thought I would have another go at explaining how this is going to work.

The range of numbers possible is 0 to 999999, I know that I said a six digit number, so 0 should really be 000000.

When you pick a number, you are in fact getting a range of numbers, but that range is dependant on what numbers have been picked around you. If you are really unlucky, and say you pick 315561, and someone else picks 315562, and a third person picks 315560, then your range is just the number that you picked.

But, if you instead picked 100000, and that was the lowest guess, and the next highest is 150000, then your range is either 000000 - 125000 or 000000 - 124999 depending on who made their guess first. (refer to rule 6 above)

So, the tip to making a guess that gives you the best chance of winning, is to pick a number that gives you the greatest range of numbers, but being able to do that is knowing what everyone else has picked. So if Stuart or any of the other people with Database Access to the Server make a really astute guess towards the end, I know that someone has been reading my private messages....

If at the end of this you are still confused, just PM me a number between 000000 and 999999

James

James, this video fully explains it

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wd8qzqfPfdM

Hmmmm .... so all I need to do is reverse engineer the super-secret SecureID algorithm so I can predict the number it will display at a random moment on the 27th of March.
Easy. Eeeeeee ----- zzzzzz.

Not.

However, it's always appealed to me that "random numbers" are generated by an algorithm. A true oxymoron.

Work sent me on the SecurID administors course, and unfortunately they did not teach me how to guess the random number that would be generated at a time I am unable to predict

Work sent me on the SecurID administors course, and unfortunately they did not teach me how to guess the random number that would be generated at a time I am unable to predict

They need to improve that course

I think it is all too hard. I think the easiest thing to do James seeing it is my birthday week on the day you pick the number - that you should just give both vouchers to me. How much easier would that be for you!!!

....happy birthday to me, la la la

I know Jimmy flagged it as a crazy action, but why are we all debating the technicalities of the rules when the real question is: WHY can't he be bothered spending $1000????!!

Mike, you 3 times winner of the school raffle, you've got nothing on me. I win EVERYTHING that doesn't require paid entry. EVERYTHING! I've won a trip to New Caledonia, a mozza at the local pub badge draw, a cd under my seat at the Cremorne Orpheum, and even a couch once.

It's all about faith. Westfield here I come!

I know Jimmy flagged it as a crazy action, but why are we all debating the technicalities of the rules when the real question is: WHY can't he be bothered spending $1000????!!

There are no bike shops in Westfield.

There are no bike shops in Westfield.

There's a DJ's - so that comes a close second....unless of course there was a Tiffany or a George Jensen.

There's a DJ's - so that comes a close second....unless of course there was a Tiffany or a George Jensen.

Don't know about George Jensen, but I sure know there's no Georg Jensen in Westfield. Otherwise $1000 can be exchanged for a barely visible necklace pendant at Tiffany. Ouch ouch, need a magnifying glass to see!

Mike, you 3 times winner of the school raffle, you've got nothing on me. I win EVERYTHING that doesn't require paid entry. EVERYTHING! I've won a trip to New Caledonia, a mozza at the local pub badge draw, a cd under my seat at the Cremorne Orpheum, and even a couch once

Guess I'm not as good at fluttering my eye lids as you



I hate Westfield car parks. I can see where James is coming from, but you could purchase a 1/2 dozen bikes at Kmart

Every Westfields has one thing that every cyclist desperately needs: FOOD.

As per my original post, not every store in a Westfields will accept them. I am pretty sure that DJ's and Myers do not.

If you are unsure, visit Westfields website and look up the store, it will list if they accept Westfield Vouchers.

James

Every Westfields has one thing that every cyclist desperately needs: FOOD.

yeah, are there any stores that accept this that will sell mars bars cheap if you get 500 bux worth of them?

according to this http://westfield.com.au/burwood/find/de ... tailer=654 David Jones accept them.

I gave Camellia the evil eye tonight

I gave Camellia the evil eye tonight

Was that the look? I thought it was a look of passion? Sorry Cam - didn't want to let the secret out.

Was that the look? I thought it was a look of passion? Sorry Cam - didn't want to let the secret out.

mmm... Ted wouldn't of been too happy if that was the case.

You know we have no chance with Camilla in the running. Can we request a mod to delete her account?

Besides, Camilla doesn't have your shopping expertise.

Just a reminder that this closes on Friday, so far I have only received 19 guesses. That is what surprises me...

James

For those who haven't entered and can't think of a six digit number.

Here's a page to do it for you

http://www.jamescheetham.net/random.html

James

i reckon i need my own web page like that.
I could post links to crazy cycling photos, and have a blog about wether ive decided to be a road cyclist, track cyclist, sprinter, or retire from cycling on the day, and my thoughts on current cycling culture and why i think more fixy cyclists should be allowed to ride in the mardigra

OK, the results are in....

But first, I thought that I would post what everyone's range is, as well as the % of numbers that they covered.

colin 3,743 0.37%
Nada Z 6,270 0.63%
kiwiames 12,227 1.22%
orphic 12,834 1.28%
mikebytes 14,179 1.42%
Karzie 14,344 1.43%
Camilla 14,676 1.47%
othy 19,151 1.92%
christian 21,062 2.11%
Stretch 22,019 2.20%
micklan 22,025 2.20%
Peter T 22,902 2.29%
rhys 23,601 2.36%
Shelles 26,368 2.64%
T-Bone 27,430 2.74%
Trouty 30,885 3.09%
Simon Llewellyn 31,759 3.18%
Manny 31,836 3.18%
Miguel 33,702 3.37%
G 34,219 3.42%
Michael Chidey 36,180 3.62%
timmyone 37,946 3.79%
Terry 40,001 4.00%
Anthonyl 47,460 4.75%
andrewb 49,091 4.91%
shrubb face 59,305 5.93%
Rainbow 63,378 6.34%
Stuart 105,885 10.59%
wallman 135,528 13.55%

This isn't 100% accurate as it ignores the time that people actually got their entries in. I received 29 guesses, of which 19 were less than 500,000. Stuart and wallman had the two ends, which is also why they had the biggest ranges. Special note has to go to andrewb, who took the attitude that 1 number is as good as any other, and guessed a multiple of 100,000...

And, now for the bit that everyone has been waiting for, the two winning numbers...

131289
707030

Which means that the winners are....

Stretch
andrewb

If you two want to PM me an address I can send the card to, or let me know how I can get it to you, that would be fantastic.

Thanks for everyone who took part, I did enjoy the banter back and forth on the forum as well as some of the messages that I received along with the numbers.

James

Hiya,

I totally don't get the calculation or the range of numbers. I picked 785559 - so not sure what that range meant you have listed above?

ANyway - congratulations to Stretch and Andrew B. If you want a hand spending it, let me know.

I haven't listed your guess, just the amount of numbers that you had within your "range".

So you picked 785,559, and the next lowest guess was 754,859 and the next highest guess was 816,629. So by the rules, you would have won if your guess was the closest to one of the winning numbers.

That means that you get the numbers halfway between your guess and the next guess on either side. i.e. (785,559 - 754,859)/2 + (816,629 - 785,559)/2 = 30,855

Basically, there are 1,000,000 numbers, 0 to 999,999, of those million numbers, your number selection entitled you to 30,855 of them.

Does that make it clearer?

James

Does that make it clearer?

James

Skimming what you have read, kind of, but I'm sure with a bit more concentration on your answer - I'll get it. All I know for sure is......I didn't win

Ha Camilla didn't win

Thanks to Jimmy for very generous competition.

Any suggestions on how to spend the prize? I'm sorta already in possession of most things I need (except wit, style, charm, & grace - and I haven't seen any of them at Westfield).

cheers,
andrew

PS I guess this must rocket me up the league table of DHBC's most eligible bachelor: I've got $500 and no one responsible in charge of my finances.

Thanks to Jimmy for very generous competition.

Any suggestions on how to spend the prize? I'm sorta already in possession of most things I need (except wit, style, charm, & grace - and I haven't seen any of them at Westfield).

cheers,
andrew

PS I guess this must rocket me up the league table of DHBC's most eligible bachelor: I've got $500 and no one responsible in charge of my finances.

AndrewB honey... if you need help spending this then you've asked the right person!